Are We In A Post Rules Based Order World?
The Rules Based International Order has been a safeguard of Western civilization since WWII, but why is it important, and what are the consequences of abandoning it?
German Foreign Minister Joachim Von Ribbentrop, Soviet leader Josef Stalin, and Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov meet at the Kremlin on August 23, 1939, to sign the Molotov-Ribbentrop nonaggression pact.
The Prologue
As the Sudetenland was being bartered away, and Czechoslovakia was falling into the hands of Nazi Germany, Adolf Hitler had this to say about Winston Churchill who had been warning against the German leader, pointing out that Hitler had lied and betrayed every agreement and nonaggression pact:
"He [Churchill] is the most bloodthirsty and amateurish strategist in history.... As a soldier he is a bad politician and as a politician an equally bad soldier. His abnormal state of mind can only be explained as symptomatic either of a paralytic disease or of a drunkard's ravings.”
Adolf Hitler, May 4, 1940
Within weeks, confident that the Western nations would do nothing, the Soviet Union would align itself with Nazi Germany, and Poland would be attacked.
While many people are aware of the overview leading up to the Second World War, it is important to take a minute to read what was said and how the events unfolded. Even considering 20-20 hindsight, it is painful to see how avoidable the greatest war in history might have been had there been a more coherent opposition to the Axis powers.
A New Kind of Peace
In a time of sensational headlines and instant access to news on conflicts all over the world, it is easy to forget that the period since the end of the Second World War has been one of the most peaceful times in Western history when compared to the constant state of warfare and bloodshed of the 17th, 18th, 19th and first half of the 20th centuries.
This peace is largely due to the so-called Rules Based International Order, a series of guidelines embraced and maintained by Western powers at the end of World War Two to curb the vicious brutality that had wrecked the world twice over in a span of 40 years and in two world wars.
This system of accountability, flawed as it was, helped to maintain treaties, promote commerce, and deter would be aggressors. It formed the basis for peaceful global trade and dialogue between otherwise hostile nations. It was built on the preservation of sovereignty and the rule of law over the war-lord or colonial doctrines of might makes right. If the free world was to persist, there would be no place for land grabs, poison gas, concentration camps, chemical weapons, or ethnic cleansing. This collection of conventions and treaties at its core was meant to uphold the values of liberty, autonomy, and sovereignty that the Western tradition was built on.
The Cold War was a test of this new understanding, America’s opposition to the Soviet Union was not principally because it was communist, but because the Soviet doctrine sought to impose its totalitarian will on the world and articulated its aims to that end. When the Soviet Union disintegrated, much of the Western world thought the threat of conquest and expansionism in Europe had also ceased to exist. But even as the hammer and sickle was replaced by the Russian tri-bar, the communist doctrine was replaced by gangster ethics.
The Gangster Way
Since his rise to power nearly 25 years ago, Vladimir Putin has continually shown that he will operate within the space granted him. If it is useful to “play by the rules,” he will. But the moment they are no longer expedient, he has no more need for them. One can look to the brutal execution of the Chechen Wars through the early 2000s, the invasion of Georgia in 2008, the backing and military support of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad since 2011, and the 2014 invasion of east Ukraine and the seizure of the Crimean peninsula in the lead up to the full scale invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Assad is widely viewed as a war criminal for his attacks on civilians, including the use of chemical weapons. Image/Mikhail Klimentyev, via Military Times
Russian state-sponsored mercenary armies like the Wagner Group operate with impunity throughout Africa and parts of South America, and the use of torture and sexual violence is common procedure throughout the Russian occupying army in Ukraine.
The Kremlin’s response to condemnation of these actions is to deny and deflect or justify and gloat, often both tactics are employed simultaneously. This could be summed up by the phrase used by Russian troops in Ukraine and left graffitied on a destroyed Ukrainian home:
“There are two answers to all questions about Ukraine 1. It didn't happen 2. They deserved it. Both are correct.”
The Path Ahead
We appear to be moving into a world where even the facade of compliance with the principles of the Rules Based International Order is fading. It is one thing to break international law, and it is another altogether to reject its very relevance and value.
The post World War II vision of global and economic repartée was flawed, but it sought to promote dialogue and appeal instead of bloodshed and conquest, and to that end it was remarkably successful. Ultimately though, it is the principles that the system was founded on which is the most important thing. The “bad guys“ will continue to do bad things, but it is up to the free world and those who adhere to those principles of liberty, law, and sovereignty to act in accordance with them.
It is up to us to stand by the principles that undergird the Western Tradition. Without these we live in a world of despotic chaos and bloodshed.
In the end, it took the capture of the Sudetenland, the fall of Czechoslovakia, and the invasion of Poland by Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union before Western Allied countries woke up to the reality that “you cannot reason with a tiger when your head is in his mouth.”
In the present context, we in the West, but specifically America, must come to the realization that placating our foes will only indicate that we care little for our Allies and are too weak and divided to be taken seriously.
Ordinary people in the democratic West should ask themselves what is the kind of world we want to leave to our children in the 21st century? We must be careful that we are not sacrificing someone else’s today for our tomorrow because we are either too afraid or too blind to stand against blatant and unashamed acts of war.
